Both when the CBOE future expired and after this, once the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there is an amazing decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a serious low volume and I would guess that they may be covered with a unitary liquidity provider\/market maker. The forex market maker is most probably short the long run and perchance long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit if the prices are low this will let you border after settlement if the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a really bad settlement processes that are simple to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender having a tiny volume most of the time.

CME’s model is way better, but still not as good, VWAP about the four major exchanges is a good idea, however, if that VWAP is calculated on only one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on a real brief time period is quite limited. Even when many large participants may have interests in almost any of the settlement processes they’d probably have the same position and advantages from the identical side in the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over hrs instead). The final outcome is the fact that we likely will see a lot of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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