Both if the CBOE future expired and today, if the CME bitcoin future is arriving settlement, there were an important reduction in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would estimate that they are dominated by one liquidity provider\/market maker. This market maker is probably short the long run and perchance long the spot. At expiry, they’ll profit if your costs are low this will let you border after settlement once the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen an extremely bad settlement processes which can be easy to manipulate. For CBOE it does not take auction price for Gemini – a tender which has a very small volume usually.

CME’s model is much better, but nevertheless of low quality, VWAP for the four major exchanges is a great idea, but if that VWAP is calculated on just one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the degree on such a brief period is quite limited. Even when many large participants could have interests in a of these settlement processes they’d more than likely have a similar position and gains advantage from the identical side in the market manipulation. The VWAP have to have been calculated over several hours instead). Concluding is always that we likely will discover a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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