Both when the CBOE future expired and today, in the event the CME bitcoin future is on its way settlement, there was a substantial decrease in the bitcoin price. Both futures has a significant low volume and i also would estimate that they may be dominated by one liquidity provider\/market maker. Forex maker is most probably short the future and maybe long the area. At expiry, they’ll profit if your price is low and also have a border after settlement when the cost rebounds. Sadly both CME and CBOE has chosen a very bad settlement processes which might be an easy task to manipulate. For CBOE it is the auction price for Gemini – a young using a very small volume more often than not.

CME’s model is way better, however not very good, VWAP around the four major exchanges a very good idea, in case that VWAP is calculated on one minute of trading it’s meaningless. With few large participants, the quantity on this type of brief span of time is incredibly limited. Even if many large participants would have interests in a of these settlement processes they’d probably have a similar position and advantages of precisely the same side of the market manipulation. The VWAP should have been calculated over a long time instead). The conclusion is the fact that we likely will discover a great deal of strange market activity around each future expiration and expect a rebound after 3 pm Central time today!.

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