A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the use of sellers revealing a bull trap. This can trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support arehorrified to find that the supplying extend in to the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.

A sustained move over $54.00 will indicate the existence of buyers. This may also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and just buy stops. The upside momentum will not likely continue and testing $54.98 can be a fantasy for buyers from fuelled trade talks.

Lifting Iranian sanctions will have a significant impact on the globe oil market. Iran’s oil reserves are the fourth largest on the globe and they have a production capacity of around 4 million barrels each day, causing them to be the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves be the cause of approximately 10% of the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, in the rate with the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. More than likely Iran will prove to add about One million barrels of oil per day for the market and in accordance with the world bank this may result in the decline in the crude oil price by $10 per barrel next season.

According to Data from OPEC, at the start of 2013 the most important oil deposits have been in Venezuela being 20% of world oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Because of the characteristics from the reserves it is not always possible to bring this oil to the surface because of the limitation on extraction technologies as well as the cost to extract.

As China’s increased interest in natural gas as an alternative to fossil fuel further reduces overall demand for oil, the rise in supply from Iran and the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil to the market should begin to see the price drop in the next Twelve months and a few analysts are predicting prices will fall under the $30’s.

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