A sustained move under $53.61 will signal the use of sellers revealing a bull trap. This will trigger a labored break with potential targets weighing $52.40, $51.29 and $50.66. If $50.66 fails as support discover the supplying extend to the main retracement zone at $50.28 to $48.83.

A sustained move over $54.00 will indicate the use of buyers. This will likely also indicate that Friday’s move was fueled by fake buying rather and merely buy stops. The upside momentum won’t continue and testing $54.98 is a fantasy for buyers from fuelled trade talks.

Lifting Iranian sanctions will have a significant impact on the world oil market. Iran’s oil reserves include the fourth largest on the globe with a production capacity of about 4 million barrels every day, which makes them the second largest producer in OPEC. Iran’s oil reserves account for approximately 10% in the world’s total proven petroleum reserves, at the rate in the 2006 production the reserves in Iran could last 98 years. More than likely Iran create about 1 million barrels of oil a day for the market and according to the world bank this may resulted in decline in the crude oil price by $10 per barrel next season.

According to Data from OPEC, at the outset of 2013 the biggest oil deposits are in Venezuela being 20% of worldwide oil reserves, Saudi Arabia 18%, Canada 13% and Iran 9%. Due to the characteristics with the reserves it isn’t always very easy to bring this oil to the surface because of the limitation on extraction technologies and also the cost to extract.

As China’s increased need for natural gas rather than fossil fuel further reduces overall demand for oil, the rise in supply from Iran and also the continuation Saudi Arabia putting more oil onto the market should understand the price drop on the next 12 months and several analysts are predicting prices will belong to the $30’s.

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